Question

Using the information provided in the table below, find the probability of completing the project in 44 weeks? Pessimistic Time Estimates Time Estimates (weoks) Optimistic Time Most Likely Immediate PredecessorisEstimate (wooks) Activity ) (weeks) A none A B 12 A C 10 B 12 18 F F D, E 6 D, E G 6 10 H 8 11 G 3 3 H I J

Answer 1

Critical path of the network: - A C E G I J = 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 Expected duration = 6 + 44/6 + 75/6 + 35/6 + 8 + 3 = 42.666 weeks variance of the project = variance of the critical events sigma^2 = (PT - OT/6)^2 = (c - a/6)^2 sigma^2 = (9 - 3/6)^2 + (12 - 4/6)^2 + (18 - 9/6)^2 + (8 - 3/6)^2 + (11 - 5/6)^2 + (3 - 3/6)^2 = 1 + 1.777 + 2.25 + 0.6944 + 1 + 0 sigma^2 = 6.7214 deviation (sigma) = squareroot 6.7214 = 2.5925 rightarrow finding the probability of the project consection before in 44 weeks from standard normal distribution Z = X - U/sigma p(x < 44) z = 44 - 42.666/2.5925 z =